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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest surprise.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans improving together. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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