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"I'll be sitting in the same seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, noting that if the conversation was successful, he might invite us into Number 10 for a follow-up chat in 2026.

For a PM, there's rarely ever downtime for those in the top job. In the hour before we sat down, Sir Keir had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to work out exactly what had happened in Venezuela, where his big political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once the discussion, which was much longer than usual, had concluded, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

With the year starts, Sir Keir appears to have had something of a reboot. Maybe even just some downtime with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

This appeared to have put him in improved morale than at the saggy conclusion of 2025, a awful annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his supporters kidding themselves if they think his political fate are poised to get better?

Internal Doubts

The harsh reality for the leader is that numerous of his party members believe he's ineffective at his job. Several of them would rather gamble and oust him sooner rather than later.

However Sir Keir was dismissing such talk when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "assessed at the poll", arguing no one would strip his five-year mandate from him – even if the best chance of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 could be for Labour to change leader.

"This is the struggle of our lifetime and I plan to be at the forefront," he affirmed.

The May Elections

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be assessed far sooner than then – in a major set of elections in May throughout the UK. He attempted to contend, perhaps excessively, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

Accurate – up to a point. But although he may be reluctant to concede it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would resign, should one of his MPs contested his leadership for the job, if those elections be catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to rationalise his low poll ratings by saying the public was understandably eager for things to improve. He tried to persuade me, and the public, that this year would be distinct.

The economic situation would recover notwithstanding rising unemployment, he said, when plans the administration put in place during their first turbulent year began to bear fruit.

• He committed to close asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, but he wouldn't put a firm date on that.
• He noted too, with the qualification that it wasn't a done deal, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt closer now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He stated for the first occasion that Western allies were now discussing how to combine US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to guard a possible peace.

His core argument is that in 2026 the country will "turn the corner".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have communicated with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – calmer, perhaps, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of encountering demands from within his own party for a bolder strategy, with increased political clarity, more urgency, more speed and more immediacy, his explanations were repeated ones.

When he finds himself in this much political difficulty, should he consider a new narrative?

No government, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, gets everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's challenges are not only because government is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have faltered, even in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM admitted that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when comments he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer attributed it to "procedures" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is facing evident political risks as the year progresses. His alliance with the US president takes on a new complication after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over a long period, the idea he would be at ease with these events seems far-fetched.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He stated he was a "career-long champion of international law" but we "simply haven't got the entire story at the moment".

Critics called for him to denounce it prior to we spoke. And the administration is expected to face further scrutiny to give an definitive view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also always been growing pressure in the Labour party to revisit some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM denies he's heading in that direction, but his new more concrete commitment to integrate further with the EU's single market – the giant economic European trading zone – will probably elicit protests that he is going back on his promise never to try to reverse the decisions that flowed from Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will delight many on his side of the party, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to