Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.