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One century ago, pioneering pilot Francesco de Pinedo from Italy was striving for a groundbreaking achievement of traversing the Indian landmass in a flying boat. He later splashed down on the Tiber in Rome to widespread recognition, having flown via Asia to Australia and back over seven months, taking off and landing in water 80 times.

The aviation sector has been characterized by stop-start journeys on previously unexplored routes to ambitious, if not unattainable, goals. Today’s collective act of faith – amid widespread doubt – is in pursuing a vague route toward eco-friendliness, via environmentally friendly fuels that are not yet manufactured at scale.

Industry Commitment and Challenges

The majority within the airline sector, if only for their own benefit, are on board with the theory. Of the identified emissions cuts needed for carbon neutrality, seven out of ten depend on sustainable aviation fuels, commonly known as SAF. “Without it,” says Tim Alderslade, of Airlines UK, “achieving net zero by 2050 becomes nearly impossible.”

This year, the first steps were imposed by mandate in the European Union and United Kingdom, demanding that 2% of aircraft fuel be eco-friendly – by the year 2030, this rises to 6% in the EU and 10% in the UK.

Diverging Opinions Among Airlines

Nonetheless, carriers have raised doubts about if adequate supplies will be accessible and at what price. A fissure is developing between companies that have locked in SAF supplies and invested in technologies, and those intensely focused on financial performance.

Michael O’Leary, the chief executive of Ryanair rejects SAF as impractical. He says: “It is all gradually dying a death, which is what it deserves to do. We have barely achieved the 2% requirement. Reaching 6% by 2030 is unfeasible; 10%, not a hope in hell. We’re not going to get to net zero by 2050.”

Even cautious supporters of SAF also have concerns. Iata’s director general Willie Walsh, had pushed for fuel tanks to contain 5% SAF by 2030. He admitted last week to disappointment in progress, noting he doubts the goal is attainable considering current SAF production levels”.

Public Sector Efforts and Manufacturing Challenges

Britain is attempting to establish the structure with a guaranteed income system. Legislation now moving through parliament will guarantee a price for SAF, to stimulate manufacturing investments. In July, the Transport Department assigned £63 million to seventeen firms aiming to produce SAF domestically. A spokesperson said there were “encouraging early signs regarding compliance with the mandate”. But only Phillips 66 in Humberside is making SAF at scale, with the five plants promised under Boris Johnson’s “jet zero” strategy yet to appear.

Carrots and sticks are needed, with big oil companies having ever less incentive to go green when invited to drill for easy profit. Shell’s decision to stop construction of a Rotterdam biofuel plant, expected to be one of Europe’s biggest converters of waste to jet fuel, will make SAF rarer and dearer. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill” slashes US incentives for SAF manufacturing established under Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act – though, as a compromise to US agricultural producers, some subsidies on homegrown SAF feedstocks will continue for two more years.

Global Perspectives and Future Outlook

Philip New, a former BP alternative energy executive and government adviser on SAF, says: “I’m very pessimistic about SAF in the US. Absent mandates, rules, or incentives, adoption is unlikely.”

Outside America, global politics may impact availability differently, he notes. Trade levies might redirect additional Chinese cooking oil to European SAF; meanwhile, Asian countries introducing their own mandates and quotas may not want to export.

New maintains that SAF will eventually materialize but warns: “It is going to be a lumpy transition.”

Innovation Progress and Eco-Impact

Present UK and EU regulations can be fulfilled solely with HEFA-derived SAF, made from sources such as recycled cooking oil – despite concerns about its origins. Greater challenges arise with governmental calls for second-generation SAF, made of feedstocks such as household rubbish.

Alderslade describes 2G output as “highly uncertain”. Failing to meet requirements, he states, will result in fines “which inevitably will be passed through to passengers”.

New says: “In theory this is a really great way of getting rid of our waste.” The difficulty lies in securing appropriate backing to back up the very high-risk first generations of these technologies.” Despite public support, 2030 goals for 2G are probably unattainable, he adds.

Funding and Sustained Feasibility

Notwithstanding the dangers, funders recognize future potential. An anonymous international investment manager said the US was an outlier in abandoning net zero, as regulations emerge in Asia and Europe. “Among large oil firms, SAF is less critical, it’s challenging – certain parties are withdrawing. However, carriers cannot forsake it. It’s going to be bumpy – but is it all coming down? No.”

Differing views among airlines, he suggests, could relate to SAF availability and cost at the airports they use: “Supply is ample at major airports.”

Corporate Strategies and Regional Efforts

The British Airways owner, IAG, says it has a “long-term commitment”, based on past actions – it revealed intentions in 2011 for a pioneering waste-to-fuel plant in Essex, yet conceded failure by 2017. IAG says there will be enough SAF to meet EU and UK mandates until 2030. But a spokesperson added: “Second and third generation SAFs do require more investment and development assistance … Regulations help drive demand but investment in production is key.”

Green shoots are still appearing: Belfast-based Catagen, recently introduced proprietary modular systems capable of generating required SAF volumes in the vicinity of smaller airports, a development endorsed by Ryanair.

Local Airport Consequences and Eco-Discussions

Regarding British Airways’ main hub, the discussion is especially pressing: if the sustainable aviation roadmap crumbles, Heathrow’s proposed third runway grows increasingly contentious.

Heathrow’s carbon strategy director Matt Gorman asserts: “SAF is not theoretical. Heathrow is already leading globally in SAF use, 17% of the world’s SAF in 2024 was used here. This is real progress, not a future promise.”

Certain eco-activists, while remaining firmly against Heathrow expansion, have shifted on SAF, accepting it as a potential route to future decarbonisation – despite concerns it may mask current ecological issues. Yet numerous advocates and researchers doubt SAF’s basic principles and its emission reduction claims.

Aircraft will still release CO2 from engines – and in the broader context, will still be depleting resources. Matt Finch, in an Aviation Environment Federation analysis, stated: “The reality is that no SAF raw material that can’t be used in another sector where it would bring a desirable environmental outcome. Often, waste is already applied toward those ends.”

Sophisticated Fuel Varieties and Financial Constraints

This reservation holds even for the premium fuel, third generation, or e-SAF, produced through carbon capture and green power. It has been manufactured in limited amounts, and tested in a Swiss “solar fuel” flight this July. However, e-SAF needs eco-friendly hydrogen, supplies of which, Walsh says, are “very limited, and also extremely expensive”. Current e-SAF backers, per a financial expert, “are likely to face losses”.

Historical Context and Future Predictions

Historical patterns indicate uncertain technological trajectories. De Pinedo was to die eight years after his seaplane feats, in a conventional plane taking off from a runway in New York in 1933. Seaplanes were replaced by jet planes introduced during WWII.

“Predicting the future will always involve some uncertainty,” Gorman says. “However, our actions are not speculative. They rely on data, specialist agreement, and a defined plan.”