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Throughout the race for the White House in 2016, Viktor Orbán stood out as the exclusive EU chief to back Donald Trump. This alignment came as no shock, considering the Hungarian leader's adoption of contentious ideas like population replacement concept and his suppression of journalistic liberties. Commentators observe that Hungary's premier more or less wrote the playbook for the Maga movement, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Electoral Support In advance of Hungary's Polls

In recent days, ahead of key votes in Hungary only six months away, the American leader returned some political favors. With Orbán pursues a fifth straight win governing a nation he labels an illiberal state, his Fidesz party lags in surveys. A visit to Washington resulted in more than a few signed Maga baseball caps; it brought considerably more valuable campaign boosts.

Special Treatment and Fiscal Safeguards

Even though earlier admonishing EU countries on the need to eliminate all energy imports from Russia, and warning of penalties against countries continuing to import Russian energy, Mr Trump consented to provide a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. Per the Hungarian leader, the Trump administration also agreed to offer a fiscal buffer to the Hungarian authorities if it faces any future difficulties, especially as Brussels continues to withhold billions in EU funding to Hungary due to violations of legal standards.

The details of this agreement seem unclear. But Mr Trump illustrated his readiness to help out political friends as the America extended a a $20 billion loan to the Argentine leader, Argentina's president. While the Hungarian PM was unable to arrange a campaign-energising Trump visit to the Hungarian capital, the discussions still turned out to be a profitable day’s work.

EU Concerns and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention probably emphasized the strategic importance of the forthcoming polls, ahead of which the moderate contender, the rival candidate, has a solid advantage in opinion data. European leaders are accustomed not to anticipate steady principles from the US government, and are familiar with the US president’s attempts to undermine the bloc. But the special treatment for Orbán – secured through an deal to acquire US gas and nuclear energy – blatantly weakens the bloc's aims to end Russian oil and gas by 2027.

• Starting in 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia, have contributed substantial funds to the Russian military campaign.
• Simultaneously, Budapest has repeatedly used the blocking vote to stymie progress in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• As Europe strives to forge a unified and effective strategy for backing Ukraine, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the diplomatic table is still a key barrier.

Rival's Approach

The opposition candidate has steered clear of vowing a drastic turnaround on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on domestic issues, while stressing the necessity for Hungary to finally behave as a productive EU partner. After enduring repeated disruptions, the European Union can only wait and hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to core EU ideals, such as the support for minority protections and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has persisted as a humiliating embarrassment for the EU. His continued obstructionism toward Ukraine threatens to weaken its security prospects.