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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.